{"id":1921,"date":"2026-01-27T18:27:45","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T18:27:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/unlocklatam.com\/?p=1921"},"modified":"2026-01-27T18:27:52","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T18:27:52","slug":"panorama-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/unlocklatam.com\/en\/panorama-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Panorama 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Empezando por lo obvio. En 2026 nos enfrentamos a cambios no en el mercado ni en el sistema monetario, pero en el propio orden mundial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desde la llegada de Trump el paradigma macroecon\u00f3mico ha cambiado, duras y cambiantes pol\u00edticas arancelarias, la vuelta a intervenciones militares, cambios en Oriente Medio, nuevas sanciones a Rusia modificando completamente el mercado petrolero. No sabemos qu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 con Venezuela despu\u00e9s de Maduro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Es nuestra obligaci\u00f3n adaptarnos, <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para ello, lo primero es identificar las din\u00e1micas m\u00e1s importantes. Comprender esas din\u00e1micas. Como impactan esas din\u00e1micas en el mercado. Hay que ser igualmente realistas con lo que entendemos y lo que no entendemos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hay tres din\u00e1micas interrelacionadas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. 1. Nuevo paradigma macroecon\u00f3mico y geopol\u00edtico.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. 2. Amenazas para los portafolios de inversi\u00f3n derivadas de lo primero.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. 3. Los primeros pasos de una nueva tecnolog\u00eda disruptiva. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. 1. La globalizaci\u00f3n y el liberalismo econ\u00f3mico fueron el paradigma principal en el \u00faltimo medio siglo. La administraci\u00f3n Trump ha acelerado el giro hacia un mercantilismo moderno en el que el estado asume un mayor rol y el comercio internacional se convierte en un arma. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Es el estado el que debe dirigir la pol\u00edtica comercial, lo cual tendr\u00e1 mayores implicaciones econ\u00f3micas y pol\u00edticas.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      2. Este segundo punto va a llevarnos a ver a los grandes actores institucionales de los mercados de capitales cambiar radicalmente c\u00f3mo distribuyen los activos de su portafolio. Ahora mismo, cualquier da\u00f1o a las perspectivas de crecimiento tendr\u00e1 un efecto exacerbado, los bancos centrales no pueden hacer gran cosa y EE. EE. UU. parece que va a estar por debajo del resto de los mercados en t\u00e9rminos de “performance” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      El giro hacia ese mercantilismo moderno puede incrementar la percepci\u00f3n de riesgo de recesi\u00f3n, y veremos a las grandes empresas estadounidenses maniobrando para contentar al gobierno y a los clientes a la vez. Pensemos que muchas de esas pol\u00edticas aprobadas por la nueva administraci\u00f3n nos llevan s\u00ed o s\u00ed a un decrecimiento empresarial, en su actual estructura productiva (externalizaci\u00f3n etc). Lo cual es f\u00e1cil de decir, pero no es f\u00e1cil de hacer. Esa modificaci\u00f3n de la estructura industrial y comercial lleva a\u00f1os, como ya vimos en el BREXIT, los ingenieros tuvieron que imaginar desde el d\u00eda 1 una nueva ruta de suministro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Cada X tiempo, a veces cada diez a\u00f1os, a veces cada dos generaciones, surge algo, un avance t\u00e9cnico o tecnol\u00f3gico que marca un antes y un despu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      La IA es ese cambio disruptivo que va a marcar a la generaci\u00f3n actual y a la nueva generaci\u00f3n. Hace 3 a\u00f1os que surgi\u00f3 ChatGPT \u00bfCu\u00e1ntas universidades han cambiado sus planes de estudio para reflejar la realidad de la inteligencia artificial? Todav\u00eda no estamos ni en la falda de la monta\u00f1a de la IA y veremos grandes cambios productivos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Muchos trabajos junior van a convertirse en irrelevantes porque esas tareas pueden hacerlas ya la IA. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u00bfQu\u00e9 necesidad hay de tener un chico 5 meses trabajando en la elaboraci\u00f3n de un modelo financiero, cuando Perplexity puede replicarlo en 8 minutos?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u00bfQu\u00e9 necesidad de contratar a un programador junior para tareas que ahora mismo Chatgpt, Cursor o Claude pueden replicar en 5 minutos? Algunos dir\u00e1n que esos sistemas cometen errores, es cierto, pero tampoco se puede negar, por experiencia propia, que interactuando con el sistema se resuelven errores mucho m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido que antes. Yo mismo he hecho programas para detectar informaci\u00f3n de los mercados en 15 minutos que antes podr\u00eda haberme llevado una semana. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Es muy pronto para saber qui\u00e9nes ser\u00e1n los l\u00edderes dentro de unos a\u00f1os de la IA, ser el primero en salir, no significa ser el primero en ser rentable. Todos recordamos el estallido de la burbuja de los punto com. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Pero es innegable que la IA va a marcar el paso de los pr\u00f3ximos meses y a\u00f1os y estar\u00e1 presente en todas las decisiones importantes.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Empezando por lo obvio. En 2026 nos enfrentamos a cambios no en el mercado ni en el sistema monetario, pero en el propio orden mundial. Desde la llegada de Trump el paradigma macroecon\u00f3mico ha cambiado, duras y cambiantes pol\u00edticas arancelarias, la vuelta a intervenciones militares, cambios en Oriente Medio, nuevas sanciones a Rusia modificando completamente […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1922,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[45,44,16],"class_list":["post-1921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-growth","tag-45","tag-estrategia","tag-latam"],"yoast_head":"\nPanorama 2026 - Unlock Latam<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/unlocklatam.com\/en\/panorama-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Panorama 2026 - Unlock Latam\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Empezando por lo obvio. En 2026 nos enfrentamos a cambios no en el mercado ni en el sistema monetario, pero en el propio orden mundial. 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